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{"ambiguity_test":{"agree":[20,20,20],"readings_per_scenario":20},"b":82,"base_rate_reason":"Mistral has announced a new named partner or customer roughly every few weeks in 2026, so a 6-month window is very likely to include at least one qualifying deal.","base_rate_statement":"No reference class is claimed.","base_rate_type":"JUDGMENT","claim":"On or before 2027-03-30, Mistral AI will publicly announce a new named enterprise customer or partner that meets at least one disclosed scale criterion (1,000+ employees, a national/public-sector entity, a deal value of $10M USD or more, or a multi-year/multi-country deployment agreement).","deadline":"2027-03-30T23:59:00-07:00","exclusions":["Expansions, renewals, or follow-on announcements involving Samsung, ESA, or the Moroccan government deals already on record","Rumors, leaks, or unconfirmed reports without a named organization","Anonymous references such as 'a Fortune 500 company' without a disclosed name","Academic or research-only collaborations without a commercial or institutional contract","Reseller, marketplace, or integration listings without a disclosed value or named entity meeting the scale criteria","Internal hiring, advisory board additions, or investor-only relationships"],"p":85,"registered_at":"2026-10-01T20:44:11Z","rule":"Resolves YES if, between 2026-10-01 and 2027-03-30T23:59:00-07:00, Mistral AI's official blog/press page (mistral.ai) or a named outlet (Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times, CNBC, TechCrunch, The Information) publishes a dated report naming a new enterprise customer or partner organization not already disclosed before 2026-10-01 (excludes Samsung, ESA, Morocco government, and the Munich hub partners), where the entity or deal meets at least one of: 1,000+ global employees, national/public-sector status, disclosed contract value of $10M USD or more, or a stated multi-year/multi-country deployment. The report must name the organization explicitly and confirm an active commercial or institutional relationship with Mistral. Anything else, including unconfirmed rumors or anonymized references, resolves NO.","sources":["mistral.ai/news","Reuters (reuters.com)","Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)","Financial Times (ft.com)","CNBC (cnbc.com)","TechCrunch (techcrunch.com)","The Information (theinformation.com)"],"type":"registration"}
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