SOTO: the record starts October 1, 2026
October 1, 2026 ยท Pacific time
A prediction that is never scored cannot be wrong. SOTO publishes its predictions in a form that can be scored, and scores them in public.
SOTO is a newsroom for the Super Intelligence / Artificial Intelligence Economy, with Silicon Valley as its beat. It reports what changed, says what it expects to happen next, and keeps a public record of every call it makes.
How a call works. Before the outcome is known, SOTO registers a claim about the future with a probability, a deadline, the sources that will settle it, and the exact condition for YES; anything else resolves NO. Each call also carries a base rate, meaning how often this kind of thing happens. It is either derived from a reference class published with the call or, when no reference class exists, labelled JUDGMENT with a one-sentence reason. The claim, the condition, the probability and the base rate are never edited after registration. If the evidence moves, SOTO can publish a new live probability with a dated reason, but only the registered probability is scored.
How it is scored. When a call resolves, its registered probability is scored against its base rate with a log score. If SOTO did better than the base rate, the call is marked RESOLVED; if it did worse, MISSED. A hit at 25% and a hit at 90% do not count the same. A call that cannot be resolved, or that is withdrawn, is scored as the worse of its two possible outcomes. Nothing is deleted, and misses stay on the record. Every score is shown next to the number of scored calls behind it. SOTO will not claim to beat its base rates until 50 scored calls with reference-class base rates show it; judgment base rates never count toward that claim.
No one decides by hand. No person registers, edits, resolves or scores a call. Software collects the sources, keeps the record and computes every score. AI models write the coverage, set the probabilities and reach the verdicts, under the rules below. A verdict needs 19 of 20 independent readings to agree. Coverage that fails a check against its sources is not published. Anderson Criativo designs the rules. They change only through a new version, which applies only to calls registered after it is published.
Where it starts. The record starts at 00:00 Pacific time on October 1, 2026. On September 29 and 30, SOTO published 19 calls as a rehearsal, numbered S1 to S12 and S17 to S23. They were archived before any of them reached its deadline (the earliest is October 13) and will not be scored, but their outcomes will still be published as they come in. Four were withdrawn. S2 was the first: it went out on September 29 at 14:46 Pacific time and was withdrawn eleven minutes later, because it was published with five same-direction Vercel posts already in evidence and a falsifier that could never trigger ("None by deadline"). Near-certain resolution does not build a track record. S2 stays on the record with that reason. S8, S9 and S10 were withdrawn on September 30 at 00:23 Pacific time, because their rules were looser than their claims. No call was published as S13 to S16. From the start of the record, every call is registered with its exact time and chained by hash to the entry before it. Once a day, starting with the first call, the latest hash is anchored outside SOTO. After that, no entry made before the anchor can be changed, removed or backdated without the change showing.
The rules are fixed. The rules of the record are ADR-000, appended below. Its SHA-256 hash is:
1bd75421d340cc3e4babbbb448d91283d478b3eec96b08eef5f70f2c98bdb8c7
The chain opens with a genesis record that contains that hash, the head of the rehearsal chain and the start time, in the exact form given in rule 4 of ADR-000. The head of the rehearsal chain is 7286547c5f05e271b993008d2e7e47ddddb07751cf7b309b6cd48abac45084d8. The genesis hash is:
10baca9148e0d037b9b905e931933395f6845d9cded5e8bf8d363437bec5ede9
Changing a rule means publishing ADR-001 with a new hash. ADR-000 is never edited.
Added October 1, 2026, Pacific time: the registered chain, the genesis record plus every registered call, one record per line, is published as chain.jsonl. Anyone can recompute its hashes under rule 4 of ADR-000.
What this is not. SOTO has no track record yet, and this page claims none. It claims one thing: from October 1, 2026, what SOTO predicts and how it turns out will be on the record, under rules published before the first call.
Built by Anderson Criativo.
Appendix: ADR-000, the rules of the record. Its SHA-256 hash is computed over the UTF-8 text below, from the line that starts with "# ADR-000:" to the end of this file.
ADR-000: The rules of the record
Status: accepted. Effective October 1, 2026, at 00:00 Pacific time (2026-10-01T07:00:00Z). These rules apply to every call registered from that moment on.
1. Calls. A call is a claim about a future, publicly observable event that SOTO registers under these rules. Only registered calls are scored.
2. Contents. At registration, a call records: the claim; the resolution rule, which states the exact condition for YES, with anything else resolving NO; a deadline with date, time and time zone; the sources that will settle it; the exclusions, which say what does not count; the registered probability p; the base rate b; the base-rate type, which is either REFERENCE CLASS or JUDGMENT; for a REFERENCE CLASS base rate, the derivation, which gives the reference class, the sample with links, the count and the time window; for a JUDGMENT base rate, a one-sentence reason and an explicit statement that no reference class is claimed; and the registration time in UTC, to the second. p and b are whole numbers from 1 to 99 percent, and p is never equal to b.
3. Admission. Software registers a call only if every check passes: the claim and the rule use none of the words comparable, significant, major, meaningful, notable, large or several; the deadline falls between 1 and 365 days after registration; the sources and exclusions are named; the base-rate type is stated; a REFERENCE CLASS base rate is published with its derivation, and a JUDGMENT base rate is published with its reason and the label JUDGMENT; and in an ambiguity test, 20 independent model readings of the rule, applied to at least three hypothetical outcomes written for the test, reach the same verdict in at least 19 of 20 readings for every outcome. If any check fails, the call is not registered.
4. Chain. The genesis record and every registration, update, verdict, withdrawal, correction and anchor are records in one hash chain. Each record is serialized as canonical JSON, with keys sorted, separators "," and ":", UTF-8 encoding and non-ASCII characters left unescaped. Records are numbered from 1, in order of appending. h(n) is the SHA-256, written in lowercase hexadecimal, of the UTF-8 bytes of the 64-character string h(n-1) followed immediately by the UTF-8 bytes of record n's JSON. h(0) is 64 zeros. Record 1 is the genesis record. Its JSON has exactly four keys: "adr_sha256", the SHA-256 of this document as defined in rule 14, in lowercase hexadecimal; "effective", the string "2026-10-01T07:00:00Z"; "rehearsal_head", the rehearsal chain head defined in rule 13, in lowercase hexadecimal; and "type", the string "genesis". The genesis hash is h(1). Records are only ever appended.
5. No hand decisions. No person registers, edits, resolves, withdraws or scores a call. Forecasting agents propose calls and set probabilities, the Resolver reaches verdicts, and deterministic code computes scores. These rules change only through a new ADR with its own hash, and a new ADR applies only to calls registered after it is published.
6. Updates. For an open call, SOTO may publish a new live probability with the time, the old and new values, a reason and the evidence. Updates are chained and never scored. Only p is scored.
7. Resolution. Within 72 hours after the deadline, the Resolver collects what the named sources published and runs 20 independent readings. A verdict of YES or NO needs at least 19 in agreement. Otherwise, the Resolver runs again seven days later, with everything published by then about events up to the deadline. If 19 of 20 still do not agree, the call is unresolvable. The verdict, the readings and the evidence links are chained.
8. Scoring. For a probability q, score(q) is ln(q) if the verdict is YES and ln(1 - q) if it is NO. A call's result is score(p) minus score(b). A positive result marks the call RESOLVED and a negative result marks it MISSED. An unresolvable or withdrawn call takes the lower of its two possible results and is marked MISSED. A call with a result under this rule is a scored call.
9. Withdrawal. Software withdraws an open call only if a named source stops existing, or if a repeat of the ambiguity test fails before the deadline. The reason is chained and the call is scored under rule 8. Nothing is deleted.
10. Reporting. Every published score shows the number of scored calls behind it. A calibration chart is published from 30 calls with a verdict of YES or NO. SOTO does not claim to beat its base rates until at least 50 scored calls have REFERENCE CLASS base rates and the sum of their results under rule 8 is above zero. Calls with JUDGMENT base rates do not count toward the 50 and are never used for that claim.
11. Anchoring. Every day at 23:59 Pacific time, starting on the day of the first registered call, software publishes the latest chain hash outside SOTO's own systems, as an OpenTimestamps proof and in a public post. Both are recorded in the chain.
12. Corrections. Errors in SOTO's coverage are corrected with a dated correction, chained and shown next to the original. Nothing is changed silently.
13. Rehearsal. The 19 calls SOTO published on September 29 and 30, 2026, numbered S1 to S12 and S17 to S23, are a rehearsal. They are archived and not scored, and their outcomes are published, unscored, as they become known. Four of them, S2, S8, S9 and S10, were withdrawn and stay on the record. No call was published as S13 to S16. The rehearsal chain has one record per call, in ascending order of number, S1 first. Each record is canonical JSON, serialized as in rule 4, with exactly these ten keys: "label", the call's number, such as "S1"; "claim"; "rule", the resolution rule text as registered; "deadline", a date as YYYY-MM-DD; "p", the registered probability as a whole number, or null; "b", the base rate as a whole number, or null; "published_at", in UTC as YYYY-MM-DDTHH:MM:SSZ; "status", which is "registered" or "withdrawn"; "withdrawn_at", in UTC in the same format, or null; and "withdrawal_reason", text or null. Hashes follow rule 4 with h(0) = 64 zeros and records numbered from 1. The rehearsal chain head is h(19), computed on October 1, 2026, from the records as they stood at the end of September 30, 2026, Pacific time. The 19 serialized records, one per line, are published unchanged in a file named rehearsal-chain.jsonl next to this document; anyone holding them can recompute the head. The head is 7286547c5f05e271b993008d2e7e47ddddb07751cf7b309b6cd48abac45084d8.
14. Versions. This document is identified by its SHA-256 hash, computed over its UTF-8 bytes from the start of the line that begins with "# ADR-000:" through its final newline. It is never edited. Changes are published as ADR-001 and onward.
adr-000.md (raw bytes, hash it yourself)